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Monday, 17 November 2014

RELIABILITY OF SIMULATORS

Trading simulators vary in their reliability and trustworthiness. No complex software, and that includes trading simulation software, is completely bug-free. This is true even for reputable vendors with great products. Other problems pertain to the assumptions made regarding ambiguous situations in which any of several orders could be executed in any of several sequences during a bar. Some of these items, e.g., the so-called bouncing tick (Ruggiero, 1998), can make it seem like the best system ever had been discovered when, in fact, it could bankrupt any trader. It seems better that a simulator makes worst-case assumptions in ambiguous situations: this way, when actual trading begins, there is greater likelihood of having a pleasant, rather than an unpleasant, surprise. All of this boils down to the fact that when choosing a simulator, select one that has been carefully debugged, that has a proven track record of reliability, and in which the assumptions and handling of ambiguous situations are explicitly stated. In addition, learn the simulator’s quirks and how to work around them.

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